政策
民間
專題
國發
經濟
名家
Figure 3 also shows the ratios of three other Asian Newly Industrializing
Economies (NIEs), South Korea (-0.2%), Singapore (-0.5%), and Hong Kong
(0.3%). All three have better fiscal position than that of Taiwan. However, with the
exception of Germany, 0.9%, Taiwan has a better fiscal position than the highly
developed European countries: the Netherlands (-2.0%), Italy (-3.0%), France
(-4%), the United Kingdom (-4.6%), and the EU (-3.0%).
Taiwan also has a better fiscal position than other ASEAN-4: Indonesia
(-2.2%), Thailand (-2.4%), and Malaysia (-3.6), except for Philippines (-0.4%).
Taiwan also has better fiscal position than some other larger countries in Asia, the
United States (-2.4%), China (-2.6%), India (-4.1%), and Japan (-6.5%).
In addition to the comparison of Taiwan's current government budget among
other governments in the world, we may also examine the time series of Taiwan's
government budget. Figure B1 of Appendix B shows Taiwan's government net
budget from 1992 to 2013 taken from NDC (2015, 32-33). During the past 21
years, only one year, 1998, had a surplus of about 1.0%. All other years had a
deficit of about 0.2% to about 6%, and the ratios varied greatly over the years. In
2013 or 2014, it had a deficit of about 1.5%. Thus, Taiwan's current deficit of 1%
as shown by the World Factbook can be considered to be historically low.
In conclusion, the current government budget situation of Taiwan is in
general much better than its "neighboring countries." Thus, at this time of severe
economic recession and uncertainty, it appears there is a room to adopt a
stronger fiscal policy to stimulate the economy. How much could the Taiwanese
government increase its budget deficit? Since the world average is -3.9 and the
world median is -2.9%, and since other advanced developed countries have
higher debt ratios, the Taiwanese government may consider increasing the deficit
from -1% to -2% of its current GDP (from Interval #13 to Interval #14), provided
that the budget is spent on rebuilding the sagging industries and services for
future sustainable growth.
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Taiwan Economic Forum
Volume 14, Number 4
