政策
民間
專題
國發
經濟
名家
Summary of the paper
International comparison of government budgets.
According to the
CIA World Factbook, Taiwan's government budget deficit in 2015 was 1.0% of
its GDP. The world average and median budget balances of 219 countries and
economies, including both surplus and deficit countries, were -3.9% and-2.9%,
respectively. If we consider only the 186 deficit countries, the average and
median deficits were -5.3% and -3.4, respectively. Taiwan's current budget
deficit is also historically low. Thus, in terms of government budget, Taiwan has
some fiscal space to expand.
International comparison of government debt.
According to the CIA World
Factbook, Taiwan's government debt in 2015 was 32.8% of its GDP. The world
median and average debts of 178 countries in 2015 were estimated 47.2% and
54%, respectively. Thus, in terms of government debts, Taiwan also has some
fiscal space to expand.
Fiscal space estimated by Moody's.
Taiwan's fiscal space in May 2014
was estimated as to be 209.5%, while its actual government debt was 32.8%.
Hence, Taiwan has ample space to expand its government debt, as much as up
to 50% without jeopardizing its credit position, that is, Taiwan can still remain in
the "safe" category in Moody's ratings.
The average credit ratings
of three major credit rating companies on the
Taiwanese government in 2016 is 4.3, ranked #25 among the 140 countries, and
is in the "upper median grade" category. It appears that the financial position of
the Taiwanese government is in a good standing and should be able to take a
more proactive fiscal policy to pump up the economy, as the new government is
facing an unprecedented economic recession.
If there is a space, just use it.
Our study above indicates that Taiwan
still has ample fiscal space to spare. As such, it appears that it is not wise
91
Taiwan Economic Forum
Volume 14, Number 4
