特別
名家
政策
臺灣
經濟
經建
國發
gamma
e
log-normal
e
log-logistic
ഃʱৣf
2
˸ɪɗࢁༀழП
ࠇ
ࣛගπᚃ
ה
મٙ͜ᗳ࿁ᅰᇞϞ͎ᅰП
ࠇ
ᅼۨʘ͟Ըd̥݊வԬழԴ͜˓
̅ձ
ࠇ
ඎኪ߅ࣣʔᙃʿவԬሞ
ࠑ
f
͉˖ਗ਼Աృ˖ᘠٙਂ
ج
dБ࿁ό
(5)
ආБП
ࠇ
dᔟ˸ᐏ՟ό
(1)
ၾ
(2)
ʕᅂ
ᚤ
ձ
ʘ༆ᙑᜊᅰٙ
ڷ
ᅰП
࠽ࠇ
f
މ
ϤdҢ
ࡁ
࣬ኽϪᔮ
బ
(2016)
ᗇj߰˲ਬ߰ό
(5)
ʕʘ
ՈϞୋɓۨ௰ʃ
࠽
ʱৣ
(extreme-
value type-I (min.) distribution)
d͵уjяЗໄਞᅰ
މ
0
eᅼਞᅰ
މ
1
ٙᅺ
Gumbel
௰ʃ
࠽
ʱৣ
(standard Gumbel (min.) distribution)
d˲
ٙЗໄ
ၾᅼਞᅰʱй
މ
ձ
d
ۆ
ՈϞ
Weibull
ʱৣ
(Corelli, 2012; Poon et al.,
2003 and 2004)
f
ה
˸d߰
ՈϞ
Weibull
ʱৣd
ۆ
Ң
ࡁ
̙ணό
(5)
ʕʘ
Ո
Ϟୋɓۨ௰ʃ
࠽
ʱৣdԨ͟༈ᔷ౬όٙП
ࠇ
dϾᐏό
(1)
ၾ
(2)
ʕᅂᚤ
ٙ
π
ݺ
ଟձ˟ࠬᎈଟٙᜊᅰʘ
ڷ
ᅰП
࠽ࠇ
f
͉˖મٙ͜ɛɢ༟๕༶͜ሜ
ݟ
༟ࣘᜑͪdତᔖʈЪಂග
ܓڗ
ٙϣᅰʱৣ
͵яவ၇̸҈༰٭e̛҈༰ᆰٙ௰ʃ
࠽
ʱৣdуjίϣᅰʱৣࢭᅺྡɪd̸
၌ಂග༰٫ٙɛᅰჃˢ̛၌༰
٫ڗ
ٙɛᅰεfΪϾdண
ՈϞவ၇
࠽
ʱ
ৣd͉ሯɪୌΥ͉˖ྼᗇ༟ࣘٙतf፲ኴٙ݊dழ˓̅ձ
ࠇ
ඎሙ͉dѩ͊ሞ
ʿ༈
࠽
ϣᅰʱৣɗᑌഐᔷ౬ό
(5)
ၾ
Weibull
π
ݺ
ʱৣٙᗫᒟf
ਗ਼
ձ
˾ɝό
(5)
dԨ˸
i
ڌ
ᝈ࿀
࠽
ٙᗆйᇁ
(identifier)
d
ۆ
ᅵ͉ᅰ
މ
N
ࣛd༈ό̙ᄳϓj
Չʕd
(5')
2
Ϊ
Weibull
ᅼۨٙ
ڷ
ᅰП
࠽ࠇ
ʘ͍
ࠋ
ୌձᜑഹѩၾவԬʱৣΝd݂ୋໍືྼᗇʱؓਗ਼̥ΐ̈
Weibull
ᅼ
ۨٙП
ࠇ
ഐ
؈
f
3
ʘ
ۃ
ணϞ
ࠋ
ٙࡡΪdɗ
މ
T
ٙ˟ԫՑ༺ʘଟd݂
ٙ
࠽
ฏ৷d
ۆ
ٙ
࠽
ฏЭf
31
Taiwan Economic Forum
Volume 14, Number 3