特別
名家
政策
臺灣
經濟
經建
國發
ΪϤd͉Ӻٙ˴
ࠅ
ͦٙϞɧj
1
˖ᘠฤరᅂᚤତᔖʈЪϋ༟ٙᜊᅰf
2
ܔ
ͭྼᗇᅼۨᔟ˸ઞীவԬᜊᅰ࿁ତᔖʈЪϋ༟ٙ༆ᙑঐɢၾᅂᚤ˙Σfᛠତᔖʈ
Ъಂග༟ࣘՈϞ̛ᗙೌ
ج
ᝈ࿀
(right-censored)
ձ̸҈༰٭e̛҈༰ᆰ
ٙ௰ʃ
࠽
ϣᅰʱৣʘतdуj̸၌ତᔖʈЪಂග༰٫ٙʱৣɛᅰdჃε̛
٫ڗ༰၌
ٙɛᅰd݂͉Ӻમ͜
Weibull
Ϟ͎ᅰ࿁ᅰᇞܵᚃᅼۨdП
ࠇ
வԬᜊ
ᅰ࿁ତᔖʈЪಂගٙᅂᚤf
3
މ
Դ
ܔה
ͭٙྼᗇᅼۨቇΥ
(fit)
ᝈ࿀༟ࣘd͉
Ӻਗ਼༆༈࿁ᅰᇞܵᚃᅼۨၾ
Weibull
π
ݺ
ʱৣٙᗫᑌdঐᏎழԴ͜
˓̅ၾ
ࠇ
ඎ߅ࣣ͊ಀᙃʿவ˙ࠦઞীٙ፲ॹf
މ
Դ˸ɪӺͦٙන༹ආБd˸ɨlz࢙ʱ̬ືjୋ൩ື̈ྼᗇ˙
ج
fୋ
叁
ືତᔖʈЪϋ༟ٙ˖ᘠΫᚥd፯՟ྼᗇᅼۨlzʘ༆ᙑᜊᅰfୋໍື̈ྼᗇʱ
ؓfୋͼື̈ഐሞၾ݁ഄ່f
൩eӺ˙
ج
މ
ઞী
ࡈ
ɛतᅄʿՉ˼ᜊᅰ࿁ତᔖϋ༟πᚃٙᅂᚤd͉ືணତᔖϋ༟ٙπ
ݺ
ࣛගʱৣ
(distribution of survival time)
މ
Ϟ͎ᅰ
(parametric)
dԨ౪ˏϪᔮ
బ
(2016)
༆
Weibull
Ϟ͎ᅰ࿁ᅰᇞπᚃᅼۨٙண֛f
ɓe
Weibull
ٙπ
ݺ
ࣛගʱৣ
Weibull
ٙπ
ݺ
ᅼۨd
ڷ
ணତᔖʈЪಂගя
Weibull
ʱৣf
ה
˸d߰˸
T
ڌ
ତᔖʈЪಂගٙπ
ݺ
ࣛගd
ۆ
T
މ
ɓ
࠽ࠋڢ
ٙஹᚃᎇዚᜊᅰf˸
t
ڌ
T
ٙྼତ
࠽
(realization)
d
ۆ
T
ٙ
pdf
ձ
cdf
ʱй
މ
j
ձ
༈
Weibull
ʱ ৣ Ո Ϟ
p
ၾ
λ
ɚ
ࡈ
ਞ ᅰd
މ ٫ ۃ
Җ ً ਞ ᅰ
(shape
parameter)
d
މ٫ܝ
ଟਞᅰ
(rate parameter)
d
ڌ
T
ٙ˟ԫ
(events)
೯
͛ʘଟd݂ഃ̸̛༈ʱৣʱ
ܓ
ٙᅼਞᅰ
(scale parameter)
ʘ
ࡀ
ᅰf
ΪϤd
T
ٙπ
ݺ
ՌᅰeࠬᎈՌᅰeʿଢ଼ጐ
א
ጐʱࠬᎈዚଟ̙ʱйᄳϓj
29
Taiwan Economic Forum
Volume 14, Number 3
