台灣經濟論衡-秋季號 - page 61

特別
名家
政策
臺灣
經濟
經建
國發
MAPE
ฏʃdу
ڌ
ͪཫ಻
਋ᕎྼყ
ʘ೻
ܓ
ฏЭdཫ಻ঐɢฏλfϤ
̮d
Lewis
€
1982
̤Աኽ
MAPE
ɽʃਗ਼ཫ಻ঐɢʱ
މ
4
၇ഃॴd˸ਂ
މ
൙Пᅺ
๟dν
ڌ
2
ה
ͪj
(
ɚ
)
ഐ࿴ʱৣ൙П
މ
ə༆ఱุഐ࿴€ν΢Бุ
/
ᔖุ
/
઺ԃйఱุɛɹ̕ᐼఱุɛɹʘˢࠠ
ٙᜊਗཫ಻dၾྼყഐ࿴ᜊਗً
ر
ʘɓ
ߧ
ܓ
dуʔሞᐼఱุɛɹ݊щ͍ᆽ
ཫ಻dසఊॱઞী΢Бุ
/
ᔖุ
/
઺ԃйఱุഐ࿴ʱৣʘཫ಻๟ᆽ
ܓ
d͉޼
Ӻમ͜޴ମܸᅰ€
Dissimilarity Index
€
Duncan and Duncan,1955
dՉ
ၑ˙ό
މ
j
Չʕd
A
i
=
Бุāᔖุā઺ԃй
i
ఱุɛᅰʘྼყ
A=
ᐼఱุɛᅰʘྼყ
P
i
=
Бุāᔖุā઺ԃй
i
ఱุɛᅰʘཫ಻
P=
ᐼఱุɛᅰʘཫ಻
n=
Бุāᔖุā઺ԃйʘʱᗳ
ڌ
ͪ
މ
Դ΢Бุ
/
ᔖุ
/
઺ԃйఱุɛᅰ̕ᐼఱุɛᅰˢଟʘཫ಻ഐ
؈
ၾྼყ
؈
ᒈ׵ɓ
ߧ
d
ה
ცᜊਗʘˢଟf޴ମܸᅰᇍఖਗ਼ʧ׵
0
Ї
100
ගdᅰ
ʃ
ڌ
ͪՇ٫ഐ࿴ʱৣʘ޴ମ೻
ܓ
ฏЭdཫ಻ۜሯฏԳf
ڌ
2
c
MAPE
൙Пᅺ๟
MAPE
€Ĉ
Ⴍ׼
<10
৷๟ᆽٙཫ಻
10-20
ᎴԄٙཫ಻
20-50
Υଣٙཫ಻
>50
ʔ๟ᆽٙཫ಻
༟ࣘԸ๕j
Lewis,C.D.
€
1982

.Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods.
޴ମܸᅰ
=
×100
∑ ⁿ
︱ ︱
=
1
A
ᵢ−−−
A
P
ᵢ−−
P
1
2
59
Taiwan Economic Forum
Volume 14, Number 3
1...,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60 62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,71,...180
Powered by FlippingBook