ִҳ༟ʔසೌ
ڮج
ආϓ
ڗ
dˀϓ
זމ
Эϓ
ڗ
ٙΪɿdՉ˴
ࠅ
ࡡ
Ϊ
މ
աִࠢ݁ৌ݁ԏοdೌੂБˀ౻ंృᐑٙৌ݁٤ගf
ɚe͊Ը
ڗ
ಂၽᝄϓ
ڗ
ᆑɢᒈැપП
ᆑίପ̈
ڷ
ܸίᖢ֛ஷጱပ
א
ೌஷጱပᏀɢૢɨٙପ̈˥fಂ
lzdቊաላᏘࣛdྼყପ̈ਗ਼ᅲᕎᆑίପ̈f
ڗ
ಂϾԊdᆑίପ̈ϓ
ڗ
ଟ
ڷ
પП͊Ը
ڗ
ಂϓ
ڗ
ଟٙࠠ
ࠅ
ਞϽܸᅺf͟ᆑίପ̈݊ɓ
ࡈ
ೌ
ج
ᝈ࿀ٙᜊ
ᅰd̀ආБપПf
ɓપП˙
ج
1. OECD
પПᅼόjԱኽ
OECD
࢝ૐజѓ
2014
dᆑίϓ
ڗ
ଟ̙ਜ
ʱɛɹᄣ̋ଟʿӊɛ
GDP
ٙᆑίϓ
ڗ
ଟՇධٙ̋ᐼf࣬ኽϓ
ڗ
ึ
ݖࠇ
d
ӊɛ
GDP
ٙᆑίϓ
ڗ
ଟ̙༆ؓϓᆑίఱุᄣ̋ଟʿ͛ପɢᒈැϓ
ڗ
ଟՇ
ʱfՉʕdᅂᚤᆑίఱุᄣ̋ଟܼ̍௶ਞଟٙᜊਗଟeІ್ุ̰ଟٙᜊʷ˸
ʿ
ݺ
ਗɛɹˢଟ
active population rate
ٙᜊਗi͛ପɢٙᒈැϓ
ڗ
ଟ̙ʱ
މ༆
௶ਗࣖଟ
labor efficiency
ٙᒈැᜊʷeɛɢ༟͉ٙᜊਗ˸ʿ༟͉ପ
̈ˢٙᜊʷɧධᅂᚤΪ९f
2. IMF
ٙપПᅼόj
IMF
࢝ૐజѓ
2015
ϋ
4
˜০࿁͊Ըʕಂආ
ၾอጳٙᆑίϓ
ڗ
ଟආБપПdܸ̈ᆑίପ່֛̈ٙʔΝ
ᄿ
ع
Դٙ͜ᒈැପ̈฿ׂdᒈැପ̈ίᐼɪஈΌପঐ༶
ᔷً࿒வᅵɓ
ࡈ
ᒯўணɨdίɓ
ݬ
ࣛගlz࿁ྼყ
GDP
ආБ̻dϾʔϽ
ᅇஷጱദ
א
ุ̰ഃᜊᅰ༟ৃf
IMF
ৰ˸
Hodrick-Prescott
୕
ࠇ
ᓩ
جت
ආ
БપП̮d˴
ڷࠅ
મ͜εᜊᅰᓩ
جت
multivariate filter
dਗ਼І್ุ̰ଟ
NAIRU
{ၾஷጱദിл౷Ϝᇞٙᗫ
ڷ
d˸ʿಂุ̰ၾପ̈
ॹɹ
OKUN
֛
ܛ
ʘගٙᗫ
ڷ
Җϓᔊఊᅼۨf
IMF
ˢ༰Շ٫પПഐ
؈
dܸ
̈Շ٫ίሯɪ݊ᗳЧٙf
3.
͉˖પПᅼόjમ͜Շ၇ᅼόપПdɓ
މ
HP
ᓩ
جت
iɓ
މ
OECD
ٙϓ
ڗ
ึ
ݖࠇ
ආБપПdᅂᚤΪɿԱ
HP
ᓩ
جت
પၑՉᒈැ
࠽
dΎԱ
ARIMA
˙
ج
ПՉ͊Ըٙᒈැ
࠽
fՉʕІ್ุ̰ଟٙપП
ۆ
༶͜
Beveridge curve
˸
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